You finally have the money.

And somehow, spending it feels terrifying.

You've been thinking about that trip for years.

Or the kitchen renovation. Or helping your kids with a down payment.

But every time you get close to pulling the trigger, something stops you.

A headline. A bad week in the market. That quiet voice asking whether now is really the right time.

Maybe you're a few years out from retirement and still not sure if the number is big enough. Maybe you're already there and you second-guess every big purchase.

Either way, there's a question in the back of your head.

What if it's not enough?

Here's what the research actually says.

For people with a solid nest egg, the bigger risk may not be running out. It may be spending too little, for too long, and leaving behind far more than they ever planned to. That said, every situation is different, and a personalized plan matters.

People With Savings Often Underspend. A Lot.

A 2026 Issue Brief from the Employee Benefit Research Institute tracked how retiree assets changed over more than two decades of retirement, using data from the Health and Retirement Study.

The results were striking.

Among middle-asset retirees, 48% still had 80% or more of their starting assets 21 to 22 years into retirement. In the high-asset group, 42% did. And roughly 43% of middle-asset retirees and 31% of high-asset retirees had held on to 100% or more of what they started with.

Two decades in, and a substantial share of retirees still had nearly everything they started with.

The fear of running out is real. It's valid. But for people with meaningful savings, the research suggests the bigger risk may be the opposite: spending too little for too long, and leaving behind far more than they ever planned to. Individual results will vary based on personal spending needs, health, market conditions, and other factors.

The Problem With the 4% Rule

​Financial planner Bill Bengen created the 4% rule in 1994.

The idea: withdraw 4% of your portfolio in year one, adjust for inflation each year, and your money should last 30 years.

Simple. Easy to remember. Widely used.

Here's what people aren’t aware of.

Bengen has said publicly that the 4% rule was built around a worst-case scenario: someone retiring in October 1968, right before 14 years of market declines and runaway inflation. It was one of the most challenging moments to retire in modern history.

The 4% rule wasn't meant to be the target.

It was the floor.

And there's another consideration.

It doesn't adapt.

Your portfolio drops 30%? You still take the same dollar amount. Your portfolio doubles? Same dollar amount.

Real retirement doesn't work that way.

A 2026 Morningstar study looked at nine different withdrawal strategies. The finding: flexible approaches that adjust over time may support meaningfully higher starting withdrawal rates in certain scenarios, while still aiming to keep your money on solid ground. Results vary by strategy, market conditions, and individual circumstances.

The 4% rule is a good place to start a conversation.

It's not a good place to end one.

Why Flexibility Changes the Numbers

Here's a key insight from the research.

Strategies that compare favorably to the 4% rule have one thing in common.

They adjust.

The Morningstar study found starting safe withdrawal rates between 5.1% and 5.7% for certain flexible strategies in the scenarios tested. These projections are based on historical and modeled data and are not guarantees of future results. Individual outcomes will depend on portfolio composition, asset allocation, spending behavior, and market conditions.

​Vanguard's own research points to a similar conclusion: a dynamic spending strategy, one that moves with your portfolio, may provide more spending flexibility over time. Whether that holds in any individual situation depends on many factors.

Here's what that could look like in illustrative dollar terms.

On a $1 million portfolio, using hypothetical examples for illustration only:

• 4% withdrawal = $40,000 per year
• 5.2% withdrawal = $52,000 per year

That's $12,000 more per year in this illustration. These figures are based on research projections, not a forecast or guarantee of any specific result for any individual.

The math suggests you may have more flexibility than a fixed rule implies. But the right approach for you depends on your specific situation.

How the Guardrails Framework Works

Of the flexible strategies in the research, one with a well-documented academic basis is the guardrails framework. Developed by financial planner Jonathan Guyton and computer scientist William Klinger, it is an industry-recognized methodology used by financial planners.

​Here's how it generally works.

You start with a withdrawal rate. Each year, one of four things happens:

• Bad year in the market? Skip the inflation raise. Keep spending the same.
• Good year and still within range? Adjust for inflation as planned.
• Markets do well and your rate drops too low? You may be able to take a planned increase.
• Markets fall and your rate drifts too high? A modest, planned reduction kicks in.

Here's an illustrative example for educational purposes only.

Say you retire with $1 million and start taking $52,000 per year.

Your portfolio grows to $1.4 million. That same $52,000 now represents a smaller percentage. Under the guardrails rules, that could signal an opportunity to increase income.

Your portfolio drops to $800,000. That same $52,000 now represents a larger percentage. A small, pre-planned reduction would kick in to help protect long-term sustainability.

The Morningstar research found that in certain tested scenarios, this type of approach supported substantial lifetime spending while maintaining a positive ending balance. These findings are based on historical data and modeled projections. Actual results will vary significantly based on individual circumstances, market conditions, portfolio composition, and spending behavior. Past research findings are not a guarantee of future outcomes.

A rules-based approach provides a framework. It doesn't eliminate the risks inherent in any withdrawal strategy.

Why People Still Don't Spend (Even With Enough Money)

​Research from academics David Blanchett and Michael Finke found something notable.

Retirees tend to spend more of every dollar that arrives as a guaranteed paycheck, such as Social Security or a pension, compared to money sitting in a 401(k) or IRA.

Same dollars. Same purchasing power.

Completely different behavior.

Here's why that matters.

Money in an investment account can feel fragile. It feels like it could disappear. So people are reluctant to touch it.

A paycheck feels predictable. So they spend it.

A rules-based guardrails plan can help with this behavioral challenge.

It gives you a clear framework each year: here's a range for what you can spend, here's when a planned increase may apply, and here's what a small pullback would look like if it's ever needed.

That kind of structure can support better decision-making. It gives people a clearer framework for retirement spending.

The EBRI research suggests that retirees without predictable income streams may be more likely to hold back on spending, not because they don't have enough, but because without a clear system, it's hard to know what's appropriate. Individual circumstances vary considerably.

The Bottom Line

The 4% rule was designed as a conservative floor for a worst-case scenario, not a universal target.

​The research suggests that flexible approaches may provide more spending power than rigid rules in other scenarios. Whether that applies to your situation depends on your specific circumstances, goals, and the market environment you experience in retirement.

A guardrails approach gives you a framework for more income when markets cooperate, a clear and manageable path when they don't, and a system to help you make informed decisions about the money you spent decades building.

If you'd like to explore what this type of approach might look like for your specific situation, we'd welcome the opportunity to walk you through it.

Schedule a complimentary retirement evaluation and let's take a look together.

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​Keeping wealth in focus,

The MY Wealth Management Team